Will employers all dump to State Health Benefit Exchanges?
We recently hosted our 2012
Market Advisory Council meeting in Omaha, bringing together a group of our
fastest growing highly innovative customers to discuss the future of our market
and product/service strategy. Since many
of our customers derive much of their annual revenue from providing COBRA and
other employee health benefits administration services, it will probably come
as no surprise that the future of employer sponsored health insurance is a hot
topic in their board rooms.
I will start with an admission. When the ACA was first passed in March 2010
we, like many, started with the assumption that virtually all small employers
and many large employers too would dump to their State Exchange beginning in
2014 and discontinue offering employer sponsored health insurance. The face value math seems simple. The ACA employer penalties for failing to
provide employer sponsored health insurance only apply to larger employers, and
even then the penalties are far less than the cost of the employer contribution
of virtually all employer sponsored health plans. If we assume that the benefits which will be
available through the plans offered in each state’s Exchange will be the same
as those that are enjoyed by Members of Congress and that the premiums will be
low given the large number of participants in the risk pool this seems to be a
win-win for employers and their employees alike. Many of our customers may recall conversations
with us in 2010 and early 2011 where we urged a concentrated strategy for
each of them to move “up market” fearing that smaller employers would be
dumping to their State Exchange in 2014 and therefore no longer requiring COBRA
compliance services.
At some point in 2011 my opinion started to change as a
result of countless conversations with state officials preparing to stand up
their own Exchanges and many throughout the health insurance industry. I also may have read an online article/blog
or two. While many contributed to this
change of opinion, the one which stands out most directly in my memory is an
analysis written by Linda Blumberg, Matthew Buettgens, Judy Feder, and John
Holahan of the Urban Institute in October 2011 titled, “Why
Employers Will Continue to Provide Health Insurance: The Impact of the Affordable Care Act.” I
would like to urge everyone to read their complete analysis, but I will attempt
to grossly simplify it here to the level which is easiest for me to
comprehend. Any inaccuracies in my
paraphrasing are mine.
First, as employers, we offer employer sponsored health
insurance today in order to attract and retain our employees. There is no Act of Congress requiring that we
do so. Rather, the competitive labor
market requires that we do so in order to successfully compete.
Second, it is likely that the plans offered through State
Exchanges will not be high benefit low premium plans. While their actuarial values and essential
benefits may be mandated, the general expectation is that premiums will be high
given the fact that the group pool will be dominated by those who are currently
partially or completely uninsured and those who benefit most from the Advance
Premium Tax Credits available to households with modified adjusted gross income
below 400% of the Federal Poverty Level.
Third, the premiums individuals will pay in their State
Exchange will be paid with after tax dollars.
This is significant and will not be lost on those higher earning
employees who understand the benefits of pre-tax health insurance (those employees
employers most want to attract and retain).
Given the above, employers who dump their group health
insurance and send their employees to their State Exchange for coverage will be
severely penalizing their higher earning employees.
Many have argued that employers will simply “gross up” their
employees’ income to include the current amount of the employer’s contribution
towards their employees’ group health insurance. This will net/net the math for the employer
and employee, right?
Wrong. If the
employer simply increases an employee’s income to include the amount the
employer was previously contributing to the employee’s health insurance
premiums, this taxable increase will cost the employer more than a pre-tax
contribution to health insurance premiums.
Furthermore, the employee will be buying their health insurance in the
Exchange with after tax dollars instead of pre-tax dollars under an employer
sponsored group health plan. Informed employees
will demand that their employer increase their income not just by the amount of
the employer contribution to premiums but also by an amount to cover the tax
difference. To remain competitive the
employer will now be paying their regular employer contribution PLUS the tax
offset, and the employer will be doing this with their own after tax
dollars. Then, the employer will pay
their ACA penalty too.
The basic market dynamics of a competitive labor market for
the most valuable employees will demand that employers either offer employer
sponsored group health insurance or pay an even higher amount at the end of the
day to compete successfully against other employers who do. If 100% of employers were to dump to the
Exchange then Exchange dumping could become a reality, but in a competitive
labor market they will not. Even if we
see some employers dumping their employer sponsored health insurance in 2014,
it won’t take long for them to either begin to lose their most valued employees
or once again begin offering employer sponsored health insurance.